Supplemental Information

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita is displayed in the chart rather than nominal GDP because it is a global standard and provides insight into a country’s wealth in relation to its population. Therefore, it is a better measure of overall prosperity. A country may have a relatively high GDP in relation to other countries, but if its population is disproportionately higher than its GDP, it may not be considered as prosperous when compared to the nominal GDP figures. For example, Germany has a nominal GDP of approximately €3.5 million and is the most prosperous country in Europe by that standard, but due to its high population, Germany is at the median GDP per capita. By this measure, small countries with a high GDP like Luxembourg are shown to be more prosperous than countries like Germany. One downside to GDP per capita is that it does not provide insight into how a county’s wealth is distributed. A country may appear prosperous, but if most of the country's wealth is in the hands of a few, the data can be misleading.

Although the primary focus of this examination is imports and exports between Russia and the largest European countries, all other nations with available import and export data were included here to provide a better overall comparison of the regional natural gas trade. Throughout the period examined, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Poland, the United Kingdom, and Turkey are consistently the principal importers of natural gas while Russia, Norway, Ukraine, Belarus, Tunisia, and the Netherlands are the principal exporters. Increases in natural gas imports and exports for these countries increases significantly during winter months as expected. Other countries not listed above have comparatively smaller sized imports and exports without major shifts during the winter and summer months.

Additionally, the data shows a fundamental shift in Russia's natural gas exports in May 2019. Prior to that month, Russia had the highest export values followed by Norway. After May 2019, Russia's exports to Europe decrease dramatically and Norway becomes the leading exporter with small export increases for the Netherlands, Belarus, and Ukraine. It is unclear if these shifts are due to possible inconsistencies in the data or sociopolitical catalysts.

General Historical Background

After World War II (1939-1945), European economies were decimated, and coalitions were formed to speed recovery. Eastern European countries fell under the control of the Soviet Union and became states within the newly formed Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECON). Western European countries rebuilt their economies with the aid of the United States’ Marshall Plan (European Recovery Program) and formed trade alliances with each other, which took various forms throughout the late 20th century. These events set the stage for the Cold War (1947-1991) between eastern and western powers with the Soviet Union and the United States being the principal adversaries. Between 1988 and 1991, the Soviet Union dissolved marking the end of the Cold War. The European Union (EU) was formed in 1993, and over the next few decades, former Soviet COMECON countries joined the EU as independent countries. However, many of these former Soviet countries, like Belarus and Ukraine, had difficulty transitioning to a market economy and suffered from government corruption leading to widespread poverty. Russian aggression and intimidation also played a role, specifically in the case of Ukraine, Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014. Interestingly, Belarus and Ukraine were two of the strongest economic states under the former Soviet Union but have since become two of the poorest countries in Europe. Belarus is not yet part of the EU and Ukraine joined in 2016. Former Soviet states joining or attempting to join the EU or United Nations is one of the catalysts for the recent Russian aggression in Ukraine and this conflict seems to be bringing about a new Cold War.